The Best Advice to Grow Your Substack? Don't Post
It might seem like it wouldn't work, but it does
Ever since I wrote what has become the definitive guide to growing a Substack, a lot of people have been asking me for advice on how to grow their newsletters. So I figured I’d share another insight I’ve learned in the past eight months since writing that original guide.
While this piece of advice I’m about to share may seem counter-intuitive, I assure you it is backed up by a mountain of data and rigorous analysis. Not only that, I truly believe it is the single most important thing a writer can do to grow their newsletter.
So what’s the best advice for growing a Substack? It’s simple:
Don’t Post
I can already hear you saying, “Carlos, that makes absolutely no sense. Am I really to believe that the key to writing a newsletter is to not write the newsletter?”
And I’m here to tell you, “You bet your sweet newsletter-writin’ butt.”
If you’ve been penning a newsletter for more than a week or two, you’ve no doubt encountered this familiar scenario: You spend hours crafting an insightful, heartfelt, poignant post, and blast it out to your subscribers. And what happens the second you hit ‘send?’ Your subscriber count starts dropping faster than JD Vance’s approval numbers.
Therein lies the central problem with posting. Every time you hit ‘send,’ you open yourself up to any number of undesirable scenarios.
Maybe your reader is getting swamped with emails and decides your newsletter is just one too many that week. Maybe they got dumped by someone with your same name and now they don’t want anyone with that name showing up in their inbox anymore. Maybe they came across your brilliant political satire post, but didn’t bother reading past the subject line, and thought “Wow, Carlos usually posts such trenchant and witty humor. Who knew he was a right-wing weirdo this whole time?”
That last example is purely hypothetical.
Either way, there are simply too many things that can go wrong when putting out a newsletter post to justify actually sending one. Luckily, there’s a better approach.
What to do Instead
We all know the best engine for newsletter growth is Substack’s internal social platform, Notes. That’s why I spend 14 hours a day on there (and you should too). Write regularly on Notes, and you’ll gradually see your follower count grow, an important step for converting folks into future subscribers. Sure, most of those followers will never actually subscribe and are just there for your inspirational quotes and dank writerly memes, but a handful will be sufficiently enticed into subscribing because they believe your writing is actually worth reading on a regular basis.
Why prove those readers wrong by sending them something they might not like?
Rather than post frequently and risk rubbing a reader the wrong way, you should instead optimize for retention by never posting ever. The purpose of a newsletter isn’t so people can read what you write on a regular basis. When someone subscribes to a newsletter, what they really want is the promise of good writing. See below:
Using Notes is a great way to deliver on said promise. Another example:
As you can see, teasing future good writing is far more effective than actually writing good writing. Especially because actual good writing has to actually be good. And what does “good writing” even mean? It’s kind of an impossible bar if you think about it.
The proof? I guarantee beyond a shadow of a doubt that this very newsletter post (regardless of how good it is) will be the last Shades of Greaves post some of you read. The fact that I’m even posting this is actually very bad for my subscriber count, and the only reason I’m doing this is because I (purely out of the goodness of my heart) want to help other writers avoid making the same mistakes I’ve made. I’m very magnanimous that way. You’re welcome.
So don’t do what I just did. Don’t post. Ever. I guarantee you'll thank me.
In fact, does Substack even need the posting feature? I bet a platform that was just Notes would be a lot more effective. Someone should work on that.
Disclaimers
I hope you’ve figured out by now that this is satire. I always write these little disclaimers at the end, and then people say “Carlos, you shouldn’t have written that disclaimer. It was very clear you were being satirical.”
And then, inevitably, someone else will write “Wait? So you’re saying I shouldn’t post? Then what’s even the point of having a newsletter?”
And I’ll go back to that first person and go “See? SEE?”
Poe’s Law never fails.
In fairness, satire is genuinely tough to distinguish from sincerity, especially online, and especially when there are so many truly unhinged people writing truly unhinged things (see Elon Musk’s X account).
So here’s my actual feeling and reasoning behind the satire:
As much as I try not to, I always get a little bummed when people unsubscribe. Not super bummed, but still, it’s like a tiny little “Aww, dang” in my head. It’s just human nature. And I’m willing to bet at least a few of you fellow writers feel the same way. So this piece is my way of saying that, yeah, it sucks when people unsubscribe, and sometimes it feels like you shouldn’t bother posting, but you just have to keep pushing through.
Because A) your writing isn’t for everyone (and that’s okay!) B) you have no idea what’s going on in that person’s life, like having an ex with your same name (it happens!) And C) if someone unsubscribes, then they weren’t someone who was likely to be super engaged with your writing anyway.
So let those folks go. And keep the posts coming.
Comments
Have you posted anything that you genuinely regretted posting? (I’d bet the vast majority of posts have more upside than downside, but still, I’m curious)
Does anyone actually read Story Club with George Saunders? No, right? We all just subscribed because we were like, “Oh, George Saunders is on here? I should subscribe! He’s an amazing writer!” SEE? The promise of good writing. (George Saunders, if by some unfortunate miracle you actually see this, I’m just jokin’ around)
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The first thing I did was turn off unsubscribe notifications. People need to be able to leave without giving the author a punch in the face on the way out.
I usually post once a week but in June there was a big anniversary in the annals of baseball riots and I wanted to do it up. I remember excitedly telling my wife that I had three great ideas for pieces lined up and that I planned to put them all out that week to commemorate the anniversary. And her response, given sincerely and thoughtfully, was: "Are you sure you want to lose so many subscribers in one week?"