Diary Entry #5: Correlated Numbers

In which I re-learn that correlation does not equal causation

This is part of a series I’m writing on the self-publishing process. To start from the beginning, read my first diary entry. If you’re not interested in combing through more data about self-publishing than you could possibly want, you can unsubscribe here (I promise I won’t be mad).

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Updated Numbers

I’m back home after a handful of book events in New York and Boston that, as I mentioned in my previous entry, GAVE ME LIFE. There’s also a few other developments over the last few days that I want to mention as well, so let me just summarize everything that’s happened related to the book from Oct. 22nd to today (November 2nd):

• I did an interview for the Greener Pastures Podcast

• I got a lovely shout out from Julie Vick over at

  Humor Me

• My book was featured on Reedsy Discovery (thanks for the upvotes, y’all!)

• I had a book launch party at Caveat in New York (and bumped into Trump)

• I did a book signing at Rozzie Bound Co-op (they have signed copies available!)

• I did a book signing at Frugal Bookstore (they also have signed copies!)

• The book club I was in read my book and I got to discuss it with them!!!

• A second excerpt of Spoilers ran in McSweeney’s on Halloween

I continue to be humbled by the fact that people are willing to plug the book, have me on their podcasts, attend and/or perform at my book events (sometimes dressed as a ham), or ask me to sign their books (what do I look like, an author?)

All of this, especially the in-person events, have been SOUL RESTORING. But, I talked about that already in my last entry. This entry’s ALL ABOUT THE NUMBERS, BABY. So where do things stand a month into my book launch? See below:

Total Sales By Date

• Oct. 2nd (including 168 crowdfunding orders and 27 pre-orders): 195

• Oct. 22nd (before in-person events): 290

• Nov. 2nd (after in-person events): 319

I crossed the 300 mark! My book is officially SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE (suck on that, haters!)

But, boy does it feel like I’ve done a fuckton of work to get here. If you consider the number of hours it’s taken to get to 319 sales, writing a book is easily the worst paying job I’ve ever had. Each copy feels like I’ve had to scrape, and scrap, and hustle to get it into someone’s hands. Self-publishing a book feels a little like this:

This movie DOES NOT hold up

Of course, it’s also been the most fun I’ve ever had writing something, and is the thing I’m by far the most proud of, so there’s that. And it’s only been a month since my book launched, so there’s no telling how the book will do over the next few months.

On the flip side, with the big initial book launch push and the book tour over with, the book is now entering what I’ve started calling the Scary Times^TM. Why? Because now that all of the book launch stuff is over, I’m going to have to find other ways to keep getting the word out about the book. Also, I have no idea how “well” my book is doing right now because I have no idea how the average book sells over time. Do sales grow exponentially as word of mouth spreads? Do sales flatline once the big launch push is over? Does it vary from book to book and there’s no way to know exactly what to expect (probably this one)?

I’m entering uncharted territory here. But, as always, I’ll keep diligently tracking the numbers using the absurdly limited data at my disposal. Which brings me to my next point, but first…

Correlated Numbers

As I was looking back at the data from the first few weeks, it occurred to me that the mystery sales spike I saw on October 10th might have been from a bookstore ordering their copies of the book for my upcoming signing. So, after the event at Frugal Bookstore, I asked the store owner what day she placed the book order.

Surely, she placed the order on the 10th, thus solving the great sales spike mystery of ‘23.

“Let’s see…looks like we ordered 28 books on October 4th.”

Excuse me…what?

If you recall, in my first diary entry, I mentioned that I saw a big bump in sales on October 4th, which I’d attributed to the excerpt that ran in McSweeney’s that day.

Thus, I re-learned a lesson I’d learned a long time ago as an engineer and a lesson anyone who works with data knows: correlation does not equal causation.

This is the problem with the limited data I have access to. At best, I can correlate jumps in sales with publicity opportunities. But, in this case, that correlation turned out not to be causal in any way whatsoever.

Also…FUCK! That means the excerpt running in McSweeney’s DID NOT directly result in a large bump in sales that day. In fact, as far as I can tell, my second excerpt that ran in McSweeney’s didn’t result in a large bump in sales, either.

Of course, as we’ve established, any attempts to attribute sales to any one thing need to be taken with a massive grain of salt. But, still, it’s a little disappointing that having excerpts of the book published in McSweeney’s haven’t led to big jumps in sales. Because, as I also alluded to in my first diary entry, McSweeney’s is the site where my work has gotten by far the most visibility, and therefore, in theory, is the readership most familiar with my work.

So, if people read the excerpts and didn’t immediately run screaming to their nearest bookstores demanding copies of Spoilers, it can only mean that either: A) the excerpts aren’t that good, B) the book isn’t that good, or (most likely) that C) I’m not that good.

I’m kidding (90% kidding). But it just goes to show, at least so far, that there isn’t one approach that’s led to a majority of the book sales. It’s been a combination of all of the things I and others have been doing — getting excerpts published, doing interviews, going on podcasts, getting shout outs in other newsletters, posting on social media — and each of those opportunities has helped me reach a few interested readers at a time.

I wish I had THIS ONE TRICK BIG PUBLISHERS HATE THAT’S GUARANTEED TO MAKE YOUR SELF-PUBLISHED BOOK SELL LIKE CRAZY, but I don’t. It’s taken doing every single thing I can think of to get to 319 sales, and I have a feeling it’s going to take even more creative approaches to get anywhere near 1,000.

So if you have any thoughts on what I should do next, or know a bookstore owner / book reviewer / mysterious village crone who will make your dreams come true but for a terrible price, please let me know! I’ll be here, slinging books for $0.32/hr.

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To read the next entry, click here.

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